Pro-European politicians in the British parliament will mount a fresh attempt to seize control of the Brexit process, in a parliamentary vote on the U.K.’s exit from the European Union this evening.
Anti-Brexit parliamentarians yesterday put forward a number of measures designed to give British politicians greater control of the divorce proceedings.
They will be voted on around 7pm GMT tonight, subject to approval by the speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow.
The amendments currently include a proposal to force the British government to allow parliamentarians to take control of Brexit on March 19, a week after May has said she will give the British parliament a second vote on her withdrawal agreement.
There is also a plan led by Yvette Cooper, a member of parliament for the opposition Labour party, to create time for politicians to vote on a legally-binding bill to delay the U.K.’s exit from the European trading bloc.
After members of her own government threatened to vote in favour of Cooper’s measure, tonight’s votes will test the success of May’s efforts to head off that rebellion by offering U.K. politicians an opportunity to delay Brexit on her terms instead.
May’s plan would offer parliament three separate votes in March: one to approve her deal; and if that fails, one to approve a no-deal exit; and if that fails, a vote to approve a “short” delay to Brexit. Cooper has subsequently tabled an additional amendment setting out this plan, in an effort to force the PM to stick to her word.
Sterling surged to a one-month high amid signs of an end to the Brexit deadlock, from $1.32352 at 6:40 GMT to $1.32800 at around 9am U.K. time.
Elsewhere, rating agency Fitch Ratings has warned UK property funds could block investors from withdrawing money as Brexit unfolds, in a repeat of events three years ago when the UK voted to leave the European Union.
How did we get here?
U.K. and European Union negotiators agreed the terms of their divorce and a rough outline for their future relationship in November 2018, almost 2½ years after Britain voted to leave.
But an overwhelming majority of British politicians voted to reject this deal in mid-January.
May has since been battling to secure the changes necessary to have parliament back the deal at the second time of asking.
Topping her wishlist are tweaks to the withdrawal agreement’s Irish backstop, the contentious plan to avoid a hard border in Ireland, which Brexiteers argue leaves the U.K. too exposed to EU lawmaking.
But EU negotiators are playing hardball and time is running out for May to break the Brexit deadlock — the U.K. is set to leave the bloc on March 29.
So what’s next?
May has said she would not hold a second parliamentary vote this week as she fights for more time to renegotiate. The PM has indicated she could hold the second vote as late as March 12 — just 2½ weeks before Brexit day.
A second failure to pass the deal through parliament will increase the chances of either a no-deal Brexit or a delay to the process of leaving the EU.
What’s expected this week?
Lacking an opportunity to vote on the Brexit deal itself, U.K. MPs will instead be able to vote on amendments to the terms of withdrawal on February 27.
The most high-profile amendment has been tabled by pro-European politicians in an effort to defer Brexit. The group, led by Yvette Cooper, a member of the opposition Labour Party, wants to delay the split if May has failed to secure parliamentary approval for her deal by mid-March.
Corbyn said his party will support the amendment, which could guarantee a majority backing in parliament. It remains to be seen whether May’s decision to offer up her own plan for deferring Brexit will quell support for Cooper’s amendment.
What about a second referendum?
May is adamant that the public has already had its say. EU officials, meanwhile, have suggested they could allow a short extension to the UK’s two-year exit period, for another referendum.
It remains unclear what question would be put to voters or even whether enough politicians would support the move. The Labour leader has been under growing pressure from members of his own party to back a second referendum and on February 25 he finally relented.
But he said his support would only come after he had pushed May to adopt a Brexit stance that Labour was happy with.
Will May survive?
Westminster insiders say Labour MPs could be persuaded to trigger another vote of no confidence in May’s government. One politico said: “The moment of maximum danger for her is when she comes out with her next plan, having had talks, having seen what the house thinks, and deciding, ‘Right, this what I am going to go for.’”
If a majority of MPs were to support a second no-confidence motion, parliament would have 14 days to form a new government before an election was called. May could also opt to trigger a snap election. Either way, a poll is a distinct possibility. Sir Mark Sedwill, Britain’s top civil servant, last month told government departments to ready themselves for one.
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