Abortion could be banned in 22 states in the next two years as the Supreme Court shifts further right under newly nominated justice Brett Kavanaugh.
On Monday evening, President Donald Trump nominated the judge, who formerly served as staff secretary to President George W. Bush, to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, widely regarded as a swing voter between liberal and conservative causes. The appointment would create a five-judge majority of conservatives for the Supreme Court and clearing a path to overturn Roe v. Wade, case that made abortion legal federally in 1973.
Kavanaugh has only ruled on one case regarding abortion during the 12 years he has served on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. In that case, Kavanaugh ruled against the request of a 17-year-old undocumented minor in the custody of the Department of Health and Human Services who was seeking an abortion, favoring an 11-day delay in accessing the procedure.
“His interpretation would not meaningfully protect the right to abortion for this young woman for whom the clock was ticking,” Nancy Northup, president and chief executive officer of the Center for Reproductive Rights, said in a statement.
Trump previously said he would only appoint justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade. When asked by Chris Wallace in 2016 if he wanted to see the court overturn Roe, Trump replied: “Well, if we put another two or perhaps three justices on, that’s really what’s going to be — that will happen and [repealing Roe] will happen automatically in my opinion because I am putting pro-life justices on the court.”
However, Kavanaugh said 12 years ago during his confirmation hearing for the Court of Appeals that he would follow Roe v. Wade “faithfully and fully.” He added, “It’s been reaffirmed many times.”
If the Roe precedent is overturned, 22 states in the U.S. will immediately ban abortion, according to the Center for Reproductive Rights. Four states in the U.S. — Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, and South Dakota — have trigger laws that will automatically ban the procedure and the additional 18 have existing bans that could become more effective without Roe v. Wade.
Cases that could force the court to reexamine the right to abortion are currently making their way through the courts and could reach the Supreme Court within the next two years. At least one of these is likely to be heard by the U.S. Court of Appeals by January 2019, said Fatima Goss-Graves, president and chief executive officer of the National Women’s Law Center.
President Donald Trump previously told Fox News that abortion access could soon be decided by the states. “Maybe someday it will be to the states, you never know how that’s going to turn out,” he said. “That’s a very complex question.” During his 2016 campaign, Trump said women who get abortions should be punished, but his campaign later rolled back on that statement.
Anti-abortion groups have praised Kavanaugh’s nominationAnti-abortion groups, including March for Life and Priests for Life, have praised Kavanaugh’s nomination. “There is simply no other way to look at this nomination than to say it is an excellent pick by President Trump,” Mario Diaz, general counsel for anti-abortion group Concerned Women for America, said.
Abortion access is already limited in many states across the U.S. In dozens of cities, women must travel more than 100 miles each way to reach an abortion facility.
The average cost of an abortion is $508, according to reproductive rights research organization the Guttmacher Institute, but the cost is continually increased by restrictions, studies show. Laws that require a consultation and waiting period before an abortion increase the cost of the procedure by an average of $107, a 2015 study by California State University, Long Beach showed. That same study showed an additional 25 physicians per 100,000 residents can decrease the cost of abortion by $78.
Abortion access has a number of financial implications. Women who are denied the procedure are significantly more likely to experience poverty in the years following, a 2018 study from the American Journal of Public Health found. Women who were unable to have a wanted abortion had four times greater odds of having a household income below the federal poverty level and three times greater odds of being unemployed after six months, the study found.
