The Kentucky Derby is supposed to be a difficult race to handicap, with a field of up to 20 horses, contested at an unfamiliar distance (1 1/4 miles) to still maturing 3-year-olds.
In the 1970s, favorites won six of 10 Derbys, but that was followed by a 20-year drought without the top betting choice taking the Run for the Roses. Fusaichi Pegasus snapped that upset streak in 2000, and a handful of favorites including Smarty Jones (2004), Street Sense (2007) and Big Brown (2008) fulfilled expectations.
But since 2013, the post-time favorite has taken every running of the Derby, a six-year streak that is the longest in the Derby’s 145-year history. The scratch earlier this week of Omaha Beach, the expected race favorite, has already thrown a curveball into handicapping. Will the wagering public back the right horse again, or is this the time for a dark horse?
Post time is 6:50 p.m. ET. Here’s a breakdown of the Derby field (with program odds):
An expanded version of this article appears at WSJ.com
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