Tesla Inc.’s first-quarter earnings and accompanying call with analysts was “one of (the) top debacles we have ever seen,” according to one longtime Tesla bull, who said Thursday he was throwing in the white towel and dropping his buy rating on the stock.
Daniel Ives of Wedbush cut his rating on Tesla TSLA, -3.03% to neutral from outperform, the equivalent of buy, in a scorching note that reflected equal amounts of frustration and despair.
“In our 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street we view this quarter as one of top debacles we have ever seen while Musk & Co. in an episode out of the Twilight Zone act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story,” Ives wrote in a note to investors. “Ultimately we believe the company’s guidance is aggressive and management/board is not taking aggressive enough cost cutting actions and shutting down future endeavors to preserve capital and give a sustained path to profitability for the Street.”
Tesla late Wednesday posted a wider-than-expected first-quarter adjusted loss and missed revenue forecasts, although Wall Street appeared to zero in initially on promises that company executives made during their call with analysts, including that the car maker would be profitable again this year.
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Tesla posted a loss of $702 million, or $4.10 a share, in the first quarter, compared with a GAAP loss of $4.19 a share in the year-ago period. Adjusted for one-time items, Tesla said it lost $494 million, or $2.90 a share, compared with a loss of $3.35 a share a year ago.
Revenue reached $4.5 billion, compared with $3.4 billion a year ago.
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Analysts polled by FactSet had expected an adjusted loss of $1.15 a share on sales of $5.4 billion for the quarter. The per-share loss forecast had widened in recent days, and comes after Tesla reported third- and fourth-quarter GAAP and adjusted profits.
“In our 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street we view this quarter as one of top debacles we have ever seen while Musk & Co. in an episode out of the Twilight Zone act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story.” Daniel Ives, analyst, Wedbush
The stock wavered between gains and losses in the extended session Wednesday, but took a dive Thursday of more than 4%.
JPMorgan analysts led by Ryan Brinkman said they expected a negative reaction, noting Tesla also missed margin and free cash flow estimates, while offering guidance that calls for another loss in the second quarter, against consensus expectations for a profit.
“Management also seemed less opposed to an equity capital raise, acknowledging ‘some merit’ to the idea, which in our view serves to highlight dilution risk that likely rises after 1Q cash flow and cash balance tracked weaker than JPM and consensus expectations,” Brinkman wrote in a note to clients.
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JPMorgan rates the stock as underweight with a price target of $200 that is 20% below its current trading level. The company is forecasting deliveries to rise 43% to 59% in the second quarter versus the first, although even at that level, it expects to be loss-making, said the analyst.
“While 2Q deliveries guidance appears potentially aggressive, the full year outlook for 360-400K implies a further roughly +35% to +45% sequential increase from 1H19 to 2H19, further highlighting the execution risk entailed in meeting the figures that are implied needed to generate positive earnings and cash flow,” said Brinkman.
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RBC analyst Joseph Spak said the numbers were “uglier than expected” and agreed a capital raise looks likely. Spak noted that spending on research and development was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2016.
“Elon talked about putting Tesla on a ‘spartan diet’ and while we don’t doubt the company spent inefficiently in the past, the low capex+R&D and of course the lower sales, are not hallmarks of a hyper-growth company, yet TSLA continues to be valued as one,” he wrote in a note to clients, reiterating his underperform rating on the stock and $200 price target.
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At Bernstein, analyst Toni Sacconaghi said the elephant in the room is still demand and questioned whether the report and call really offered any information.
“We can’t help feeling that Tesla side-stepped the issue on last night’s earnings call, with management resorting to prognostications rather than providing incremental data points,” he wrote in a note. “While we have long seen a plausible path to 400k Model 3 sales, our near-term visibility on demand / price elasticity remains limited.”
Bernstein rates the stock as market perform with a price target of $325.
Piper Jaffray took a more upbeat tone, reiterating its overweight rating on Tesla stock and guessing that the downside will be limited to the first quarter.
“Although logistical challenges—long with lower transaction prices—had an obvious impact on Q1 profitability, we think this was temporary,” analyst Alexander Potter wrote in a note. “Guidance implies a second-half recovery for both deliveries and margins, and this seems reasonable to us.
The first quarter “suffered from a particularly nasty combination of headwinds, including seasonality, a big buildup of non-US deliveries (negative for logistics costs and working capital), as well as the expiration of tax incentives in the United States,” said Potter.
Tesla made good on its pledge to improve affordability by cutting prices, thereby hurting margins. But that is a first-quarter issue that should not be repeated, he said. Piper is still with a stock price target of $396.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank said first quarter was a weak start of the year but results should improve in the coming quarters as Model 3 deliveries increase. The analysts, led by Emmanuel Rosner, did cut their price target on the stock by $10 to $280 and trimmed some estimates to account for weaker margins, they said.
Needham analysts, led by Rajvindra Gill, doubted management’s promise of a profit this year. Tesla has never generated an annual profit and it will face "deteriorating margins combined with decelerating revenue growth, pushing out profitability” further, they said.
Tesla shares have fallen about 25% in the year so far. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.03% has gained 16% in 2019, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.59% has gained 9%.
