Things have looked up since then, however. Consumer confidence rebounded quickly once the shutdown ended, and retail sales were strong in March. Hiring, too, has recovered. And the stock market has roared back, hitting record highs this week.
“Everything kind of turned around relatively quickly,” Mr. Hassett said. “The government reopened. A lot of uncertainty resolved. Equity markets started to get more confident, and then, I think, a lot of other people did, too.”
Several factors explain the renewed optimism. Efforts by Chinese authorities to stabilize their slumping economy seem to be working, damping fears of a global economic slowdown. China and the United States also appear to be nearing a trade deal, reducing the risk of a new round of tariffs.
Perhaps the most important factor in the turnaround: the Federal Reserve. Markets began to stabilize, and stocks climbed again, after Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chairman, said in January that the central bank would be “patient” before raising interest rates again, after four increases in 2018.
Mr. Trump and his allies had been sharply critical of the Fed’s rate hikes. The president has said he will nominate one such ally, Stephen Moore, to fill an opening at the Fed. On Friday, Mr. Moore, an informal economic adviser to Mr. Trump, said the new growth figure made him feel “100 percent” vindicated in his criticisms.
“Thank God the Fed listened to me,” Mr. Moore said.
Mr. Powell has said the president’s criticisms won’t influence the bank’s decisions. Still, Mr. Trump has gotten what he wanted: When Fed policymakers meet next week, it is essentially a foregone conclusion that they will leave interest rates unchanged.
Fed officials indicated in March that they did not expect to raise rates again this year, in part because they forecast a growth slowdown from last year, and still-tame inflation. Friday’s report showed inflation slowing yet further in the first quarter.
