A market for the likelihood that Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed is suggesting that the Supreme Court nominee’s chances of getting Senate confirmation are increasing Thursday.
Kavanaugh offered a tearful and impassioned testimony in front of a Senate Judiciary Committee against allegations that he sexually assaulted Dr. Christine Blasey Ford by pinning her to a bed, groping her and trying to remove her clothing when they were both in high school about 36 years ago.
A contract reflecting the odds of Kavanaugh’s confirmation rose to above 50 cents from a low of 36 cents on the political betting market PredictIt and about 44 cents just before his testimony, which followed Ford’s.
Contracts on PredictIt pay based on whether a given outcome happens. The higher the price, the higher the assumed probability an outcome will come to pass. While legal, the site, operated by Victoria University in New Zealand, adheres to limits on position size and total number of traders to stay in compliance with a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (see chart below):
Check out: Ford tells senators she’s ‘100%’ certain Kavanaugh assaulted her: live blog and video
“This confirmation process has become a national disgrace,” Kavanaugh said in his opening statement,” he said. “You have replaced advice and consent with search and destroy,” he added.
Kavanaugh claimed that he never attended a gathering like the one Ford described and he also denied allegations made by two separate women that he acted inappropriately with them.
Ford, a California college professor, in her own passionate testimony testified that she was “100% certain” that it was Kavanaugh that assaulted her that night, which the judge adamantly refutes.
“I swear to you today under oath before the Senate and the nation, before my family and God, that I am innocent of this charge,” Kavanaugh said, concluding his opening statement.
Meanwhile, the market was watching closely, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.65% all finishing the session higher but keeping one eye on the dramatic testimony, market participants said.
Earlier this week, Kavanaugh’s confirmation odds were at a low point, falling to a nadir around 30 cents.
