Haas avocados are far from the biggest U.S. import from Mexico, but soaring prices of the popular buttery fruit offer a taste of how the economy could be harmed if President Donald Trump closed the border.
The wholesale cost of Mexican-grown avocados briefly jumped as much as 50% after Trump threatened to close the border to stanch an overflow of Central American migrants.
A carton of standard-sized Haas avocados that enters the U.S. through Texas briefly rose to $44 this week from less than $30 in the early months of 2019, according to data from the U.S. Agricultural Department.
Although avocados are way down the list of top imports from Mexico, the U.S. gets almost 90% of its annual crop from its southern neighbor. The situation has become even more acute after a small crop in California.
Exorbitant prices or a shortage of avocados, though, wouldn’t be the biggest problem for Americans if the border were closed. Other products that underpin the U.S. economy could suffer even more.
The American auto industry, for instance, is reliant on Mexican parts to assemble cars and trucks. Automakers could be brought to a standstill if they couldn’t get the parts. U.S. grocers and makers of packaged foods also import more fruits and vegetables from Mexico than any other country.
The supply chains for other key industries — such as energy, technology and medical care — are closely tied to Mexico as well.
Read: Blockade of the southern border? Here’s what that would mean to U.S.-Mexican trade
Yet few products produced by Mexico have so captivated the attention of Americans as the avocado. The nation’s love affair took root in the early 2000s after the popular media played up the health benefits of the nutrition-packed fruit.
Now almost three-quarters of all the avocados grown in Mexico are shipped to the U.S., and production keeps setting new record highs.
Americans spend more than $2 billion a year on avocados and guacamole, most of which gets eaten on big holidays such as Cinco de Mayo and July 4, or during big sporting events like the Super Bowl, according to Gro Intelligence, a data analytics and strategy firm that tracks the global agriculture industry.
Besieged with complaints from business groups, Trump and senior White House aides have backtracked from threats of a complete shutdown. The administration is exploring ways to close some border checkpoints while leaving commercial lanes open.
