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Crude oil can go even higher after it spiked above $70 per barrel Tuesday for the first time since May.
The latest jump came after the State Department ordered allies to halt their imports from Iran by November. This tightens supply heading into the second half of the year and into 2019; given these conditions, the door is now open to $80 per barrel.
I've been bullish on crude oil leading into this move and believe pullbacks toward the $67 mark should be bought and investors can utilize puts to protect against downside risk.
The bull caseLast week, oil rallied hard into week’s end as OPEC met in Vienna and announced on Friday it would raise production by 1 million barrels per day. The price action even got a bit ahead of itself, with a gain of nearly 5 percent.
Several members are unable to add output, and that means only something in the ballpark of an additional half a million barrels per day will actually come online next month.
While there are some short-term concerns around rising production both from OPEC and U.S. shale, along with trade war-associated risk, the long-term story is bullish. Rising demand and the most recent order from the State Department are two positive catalysts.
Furthermore, Saudi’s oil minister pointed to a potential deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the second half of this year.
Total Votes:
Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.
Stacey Gilbert is the head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna.
Managing Director, ACG Analytics
Managing Director, Head of Technical Analysis, Evercore ISI
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