Bloomberg News/Landov
The U.S. trade deficit fell again in February to the lowest level in eight months.
The numbers: The nation’s trade deficit fell 3.4% in February to the lowest level in eight months, buoyed by higher exports of autos and airplanes and a smaller gap with China and Europe. Yet, it is unclear if the recent trend of a shrinking trade gap is sustainable.
The deficit receded to $49.4 billion from a revised $51.1 billion in January, the government said Wednesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a $53.4 billion gap.
The trade deficit was 7.6% smaller in the first two months of the year, compared with the same period in 2018, but it is still running close to record high despite a big push by the Trump White House to lower it.
What happened: Exports climbed 1.1% to a four-month high of $209.7 billion.
The figure was inflated by a 60% surge in the value of shipments of commercial aircraft — to $5.8 billion. Such a sizable increase is unlikely to be repeated, especially after Boeing 737 Max planes were grounded world-wide due to safety worries following a pair of deadly crashes.
Exports of autos and pharmaceutical drugs, meanwhile, rose by nearly $600 million apiece compared with January levels.
Shipments of Midwestern soybeans also jumped 16% to $1.4 billion and are running well ahead of last year’s pace. Chinese buyers shunned American soybeans last year in the early stages of a major trade dispute with the Trump administration, but fences are now being mended.
Imports rose 0.2% to $259.1 billion, largely reflecting an increase foreign-made cellphones and autos.
Notably, the value of crude oil imports rose even though the number of barrels entering the U.S. fell to the lowest level since 1992. The increase in the value of shipment reflects rising oil prices.
The trade deficit in goods with China declined to $30.1 billion in February from $33.2 billion.
It is always hard to read trade patterns with China early on because the Asian country’s extended new-year holiday has a massive effect on the timing of shipments, but the festering tariff dispute with the U.S. and tit-for-tat tariffs have added to the complications.
The two countries are still trying to negotiate a far-reaching trade resolution and the White House has put off installing further tariffs for now.
The gap with the European Union also fell to three-year low.
The U.S. trade deficit added up to $100.5 billion in the first two months of this year, compared with $108.8 billion in the same span in 2018. The nation’s trade gap last year was the highest in a decade and second highest ever.
The February trade report was partly delayed by a partial government shutdown early this year.
Big picture: The recent rebound in exports is a good sign, but only if it lasts. Exports had softened late last year because of weaker demand overseas and a stronger dollar that makes U.S. goods more expensive.
Slower growth in imports, meanwhile, isn’t necessarily a good thing in the short run if it stems from Americans cutting their spending because of greater worries about the economy.
Still, a lower deficit is a shot in the arm for gross domestic product — the official scorecard for the U.S. economy. The surprise decline early in 2019 should give a bigger-than-expected boost to first-quarter GDP figures.
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.26% and S&P 500 SPX, +0.05% were set to open mildly higher Wednesday morning. Stocks are nearing records.
The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.42% a benchmark for pricing a swath of consumer and corporate debt, rose a notch to 2.60%.
