The numbers: The U.S. economy remains on a growth path, according to an index that measures the nation’s economic health, though the country’s expansion is likely to moderate.
The leading economic index rose 0.1% in October after 0.6% and 0.5% gains in the prior two months, the Conference Board said Wednesday. Economists polled by FactSet had forecast a 0.1% rise.
The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators designed to signal business-cycle peaks and valleys.
What they are saying? The leading index “increased slightly in October, and the pace of improvement slowed for the first time since May,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at the board.
“The index still points to robust economic growth in early 2019, but the rapid pace of growth may already have peaked. While near-term economic growth should remain strong, longer-term growth is likely to moderate to about 2.5% by mid- to late 2019,” Ozyildirim added.
Big picture: The leading index is the latest in a slew of economic signposts that show growth remains steady, if perhaps a bit slower than in early 2018.
With job openings at a record high and unemployment at a 48-year low, Americans feel secure in their jobs and have money to spend. That will keep the economy growing in the near future, even as U.S. interest rates rise.
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Market reaction: The S&P 500 SPX, +0.69% on Wednesday was largely maintaining its early gains, but still down sharply for the holiday-shortened week. The stock-market gauge has been in a slump for the past two months, weighed down in part by forecasts that say economic growth is cooling off.
