The economy vs. social issues — we often seek to define elections as dominated by one or the other. At a time of both strong economic growth and controversial tax-cut and tariff policy, the economy was taking center stage — until Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court appointment roiled the country.
There is one political candidate, however, who continues to beat the economic drum — and loudly. She also happens to be a hugely crucial figure in Democrats’ aim to take back control of the Senate.
Heidi Heitkamp, the Democratic senator from North Dakota who is in serious danger of losing her seat to Republican opponent Kevin Cramer, has been incredibly focused on economic issues in her social-media messages over the past four months, particularly trade.
ND is feeling the harsh impact of this administration’s #tradewar. In July, I pushed @federalreserve Chairman Powell on the impact of the trade war on the US economy. He agreed that imposing tariffs over a sustained period time is the wrong thing to do for the economy. pic.twitter.com/Xr8smDFRGk
— Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (@SenatorHeitkamp) October 9, 2018
There are no winners in this trade war. Our farmers can’t sell soybeans, our manufacturers are paying more for supplies & retailers are raising prices. It’s even increasing our trade deficit, which is now over $53B. Time for @kevincramer to #StandWithND.https://t.co/zyztsRrLEw
— Heidi Heitkamp (@HeidiHeitkamp) October 6, 2018
Heitkamp sent out 530 tweets and Facebook posts related to the economy from late June to early October, according to a MarketWatch analysis of CrowdTangle data. That compares with an average of 88 posts among the 36 Senate candidates who are in contested races. Heitkamp’s opponent Cramer sent out exactly the average 88 tweets and Facebook posts about the economy in that time period.
Our national economy is booming: it's a rocket ship. In the Senate, I'll fight to make sure our country's economy stays on track. #NDSen pic.twitter.com/P19ZYOc5ve
— Kevin Cramer (@kevincramer) September 24, 2018
Even in late September and early October, amid the mounting controversy over sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh and Heitkamp’s closely watched vote against him, the North Dakotan continued to focus on the economy more than anything else in her social media messages.
From late September, when Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford testified before Congress, until last week, she sent out 79 tweets and Facebook posts about the economy, which was about eight times as many as Cramer and other contested Senate candidates. Meanwhile, she kept her messaging on Kavanaugh to a minimal eight posts.
My statement on U.S. Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh: pic.twitter.com/exZcK78JtF
— Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (@SenatorHeitkamp) October 4, 2018
Voting on a Supreme Court Nominee is one of the most important decisions a senator makes. Every day, I wake up thinking about what's best for North Dakota — and since I was elected to the Senate, I’ve been an independent voice for North Dakota.
— Heidi Heitkamp (@HeidiHeitkamp) October 5, 2018
This strategy hasn’t seemed to pay off. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Cramer with an 8.7-point lead, the strongest Republican lead of any of the so-called swing states.
Heitkamp certainly led the charge in focusing on the economy over social issues, but she wasn’t all on her own.
From mid-June to mid-September, contested Senate candidates sent out more messages about the economy, including terms such as “economy,” “jobs,” “trade,” and “taxes,” than on social issues, like “guns,” “abortion,” “immigration,” and “Supreme Court.” The trend was bipartisan — both Democrats and Republicans spoke out slightly more on economic matters than social.
(1/2): The McConnell-Ryan tax law has yet to increase wages for workers as was promised. Instead, it is overwhelmingly benefitting corporate executives and Wall Street investors. pic.twitter.com/BEYxBCTd4e
— Senator Joe Donnelly (@SenDonnelly) July 22, 2018
Using candidates’ social media accounts as a way to gauge their campaign strategies — vs. television advertising — gives insight not only on what issues they target, but also what kind of response they generate.
In what is likely yet another bad sign for Heitkamp, economic issues have not resonated as strongly as the social issues among candidates’ followings on Twitter and Facebook — even before the storm over Kavanaugh.
Over the summer and early September, about 65% of socially-themed posts met or exceeded average engagement levels on the candidates’ social accounts, vs. 50% of economic-themed posts. And whereas about 10% of social-issue posts wound up “trending” (defined here as performing about five times above the average for a particular account), only 3% of economy-themed posts hit that marker.
Since late September, candidates have focused far more on social issues — namely, Kavanaugh’s appointment — than on economic ones. And the trend of social issues resonating more strongly has only grown more apparent. About 89% of candidates’ posts about Kavanaugh outperformed their accounts’ average engagement rate — compared with only 61% of economic posts.
