Everett Collection Thanksgiving won’t be ruined by election anxiety
You won’t be eating turkey with your aunts and uncles this Thanksgiving wondering about the outcome of the midterm elections, experts said.
Actually, a decision might be in the cards early on Election Night, so it’s okay to stay awake.
Experts think it will become clear relatively quickly whether the Democrats have a “blue wave” that can wrest control of Congress from Republicans. The Democrats need to pick up 23 seats for control of the House of Representatives. The latest polls show the Republicans are likely not only to hold onto the Senate but expand control, as several seats in pro-Trump states in the staggered upper chamber are up for grabs.
When asked when the results of the election would be known, James Thurber, a political science professor at American University said: “10 p.m.”
“By 10 p.m. Eastern, the Midwest toss ups are likely settled. There is not much out west that is unknown except Nevada,” Thurber said, in an email.
Bob Shrum, co-director of USC’s Center for the Political Future and a longtime Democratic strategist, said it may be a little later in the evening, perhaps 2 a.m. to 3 a.m., before the outcome is known.
“It is likely given the Democrats lead in the generic Congressional vote poll that we will know on Election Night,” Shrum said.
He said we may know ”even earlier” in the evening if key seats in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania swing to the Democrats.
The RealClearPolitics poll average had the Democrats holding a 7.5-point lead on the question of which party will you vote for in November.
Shrum said the Democrats are likely to take control of the House but face an difficult fight to take the Senate. He said Democrats should win a lot of governorships and state legislators.
Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas, agreed if there was a real “blue wave” with Democrats winning 35 or more seats, it would be apparent as early as 10 to 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
“You’d have Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Florida by then and a decent handle on the Midwest and Texas,” he said.
Of course, this being American politics, there are nightmare scenarios that push the final outcome until early December.
In some states, like Mississippi, the winner must get 50% of the vote. If no one does, there is a runoff.
There are four candidates seeking to serve out the term of Mississippi’s Republican senator, Thad Cochran. The top candidate is not expected to get 50%. That runoff would be on Nov. 27. So if control of the Senate comes down to one race...
In Louisiana, there are no primary elections and all candidates run in the general election on Nov. 6. If no candidate reaches the 50% threshold, a runoff will be held on Dec. 8. That is true for all eight House seats.
Sherri Greenberg, a political science professor at the University of Texas, said the outcome may remain uncertain.
“House races all over the country are up in the air. I don’t think people will necessarily go to be knowing who won,” Greenberg said.
Mike Ryan, chief investment officer, global wealth management at UBS, said financial markets might be unsettled if there is not a definitive view on who is going to control the House or Senate. But he said it was a stretch to think it would be a major market-moving SPX, -0.63% event.
“Midterms matter less than general elections,” he said.
